Method Biden Trump
PollyVote 52.6 47.4
54.8
45.2
55.2
44.8
FiveThirtyEight (polls)
54.8
45.2
Economist polls
54.4
45.6
Expectations
53
47
53.8
46.2
Betting markets
52.8
47.2
IEM
57.1
42.9
Predictit
52.6
47.4
Citizen forecasts
50.5
49.5
Models
52.9
47.1
Retrospective
54.2
45.8
Fundamentals-only
54.2
45.8
Ray Fair
54.2
45.8
Mixed
53.8
46.2
Kersting
Economist
54.4
45.6
Jay DeSart
53.4
46.6
Prospective
50.7
49.3
Big-issue
51.1
48.9
Issues and Leaders
50.2
49.8
Naive
49.4
50.6