Method Biden Trump
PollyVote 51.6 48.4
53
47
53
47
Models
52.9
47.1
Retrospective
54.2
45.8
Fundamentals-only
54.2
45.8
Ray Fair
54.2
45.8
Mixed
53.4
46.6
Jay DeSart
53.4
46.6
Prospective
51.1
48.9
Issues and Leaders
52
48
Big-issue
50.3
49.7
Expectations
51.3
48.7
Betting markets
53
47
IEM
53
47
Predictit
51.4
48.6
52.2
47.8
Citizen forecasts
49.4
50.6
Naive
49.4
50.6